The impact of environmental and climate parameters on the incidence and mortality of COVID-19 in the six Gulf Cooperation Council countries: A cross-country comparison study

Basema Saddik 1 2, Manal A Awad 3, Najlaa Al-Bluwi 2, Amal Hussein 1, Ankita Shukla 2, Arwa Al-Shujairi 2, Hamzah AlZubaidi 2 4, Mohamed S Al-Hajjaj 5, Rabih Halwani 2 5, Qutayba Hamid 2 5

Affiliations

doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0269204

Abstract

Background: Environmental factors can influence the epidemiological dynamics of COVID-19. To estimate the true impact of these factors on COVID-19, climate and disease data should be monitored and analyzed over an extended period of time. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are particularly lacking in such studies. This ecological study investigates the association between climate parameters and COVID-19 cases and deaths in the GCC.

Methods: Data on temperature, wind-speed and humidity and COVID-19 cases and deaths from the six countries of the GCC were collected between 29/1/2020 and 30/3/2021. Using Spearman's correlation coefficient, we examined associations between climate parameters and COVID-19 cases and deaths by month, over four different time periods. A two-step cluster analysis was conducted to identify distinct clusters of data using climate parameters and linear regression analysis to determine which climate parameters predicted COVID-19 new cases and deaths.

Results: The United Arab Emirates (UAE) had the highest cumulative number of COVID-19 cases while Bahrain had the highest prevalence rate per 100,000. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) reported the highest cumulative number of deaths while Oman recorded the highest death rate per 100,000. All GCC countries, except the UAE, reported a positive correlation between temperature and cases and deaths. Wind speed was positively correlated with cases in Qatar, but negatively correlated with cases in the UAE and deaths in KSA. Humidity was positively correlated with cases and deaths in Oman, negatively correlated in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and KSA but there was no correlation in the UAE. The most significant predictors in cluster analysis were temperature and humidity, while in the regression analysis, temperature, humidity and wind speed predicted new COVID-19 cases and deaths.

Conclusion: This study provides comprehensive epidemiological information on COVID-19 and climate parameters and preliminary evidence that climate may play a key role in the transmission of the COVID-19 virus. This study will assist decision makers in translating findings into specific guidelines and policies for the prevention and elimination of COVID-19 transmission and infection.

Conflict of interest statement

The authors have declBasema Saddik 1 2, Manal A Awad 3, Najlaa Al-Bluwi 2, Amal Hussein 1, Ankita Shukla 2, Arwa Al-Shujairi 2, Hamzah AlZubaidi 2 4, Mohamed S Al-Hajjaj 5, Rabih Halwani 2 5, Qutayba Hamid 2 5


 

Figures

Fig 1. Mean of cumulative COVID-19 active cases and deaths by month in GCC.

Fig 1. Mean of cumulative COVID-19 active cases and deaths by month in GCC.

Fig 2. Correlation between COVID-19 cases and deaths with climate parameters in GCC as of 30th March 2021.

Fig 2. Correlation between COVID-19 cases and deaths with climate parameters in GCC as of 30th March 2021.

Fig 3. Correlation of cases and death with climate parameters (temperature, windspeed and humidity) by month in GCC countries.

Fig 3. Correlation of cases and death with climate parameters (temperature, windspeed and humidity) by month in GCC countries.

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