Estimating global injuries morbidity and mortality: methods and data used in the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study

Spencer L James 1, Chris D Castle 1, Zachary V Dingels 1, Jack T Fox 1, Erin B Hamilton 1, Zichen Liu 1, Nicholas L S Roberts 1, Dillon O Sylte 1, Gregory J Bertolacci 1, Matthew Cunningham 1, Nathaniel J Henry 1, Kate E LeGrand 1, Ahmed Abdelalim 2, Ibrahim Abdollahpour 3, Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader 4, Aidin Abedi 5, Kedir Hussein Abegaz 6 7, Akine Eshete Abosetugn 8, Abdelrahman I Abushouk 9, Oladimeji M Adebayo 10, Jose C Adsuar 11, Shailesh M Advani 12 13, Marcela Agudelo-Botero 14, Tauseef Ahmad 15 16, Muktar Beshir Ahmed 17, Rushdia Ahmed 18 19, Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour 20, Fares Alahdab 21, Fahad Mashhour Alanezi 22, Niguse Meles Alema 23, Biresaw Wassihun Alemu 24 25, Suliman A Alghnam 26, Beriwan Abdulqadir Ali 27, Saqib Ali 28, Cyrus Alinia 29, Vahid Alipour 30 31, Syed Mohamed Aljunid 32 33, Amir Almasi-Hashiani 34, Nihad A Almasri 35, Khalid Altirkawi 36, Yasser Sami Abdeldayem Amer 37 38, Catalina Liliana Andrei 39, Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam 40, Carl Abelardo T Antonio 41 42, Davood Anvari 43 44, Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah 45 46, Jalal Arabloo 30, Morteza Arab-Zozani 47, Zohreh Arefi 48, Olatunde Aremu 49, Filippo Ariani 50, Amit Arora 51 52, Malke Asaad 53, Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla 54 55, Getinet Ayano 56, Martin Amogre Ayanore 57, Ghasem Azarian 58, Alaa Badawi 59 60, Ashish D Badiye 61, Atif Amin Baig 62 63, Mohan Bairwa 64 65, Ahad Bakhtiari 66, Arun Balachandran 67 68, Maciej Banach 69 70, Srikanta K Banerjee 71, Palash Chandra Banik 72, Amrit Banstola 73, Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo 74, Till Winfried Bärnighausen 75 76, Akbar Barzegar 77, Mohsen Bayati 78, Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi 79 80, Neeraj Bedi 81 82, Masoud Behzadifar 83, Habte Belete 84, Derrick A Bennett 85, Isabela M Bensenor 86, Kidanemaryam Berhe 87, Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula 88 89, Pankaj Bhardwaj 90 91, Anusha Ganapati Bhat 92, Krittika Bhattacharyya 93 94, Zulfiqar A Bhutta 95 96, Sadia Bibi 97, Ali Bijani 98, Archith Boloor 99, Guilherme Borges 100, Rohan Borschmann 101 102, Antonio Maria Borzì 103, Soufiane Boufous 104, Dejana Braithwaite 105, Nikolay Ivanovich Briko 106, Traolach Brugha 107, Shyam S Budhathoki 108, Josip Car 109 110, Rosario Cárdenas 111, Félix Carvalho 112, João Mauricio Castaldelli-Maia 113, Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela 114 115, Giulio Castelpietra 116 117, Ferrán Catalá-López 118 119, Ester Cerin 120 121, Joht S Chandan 122, Jens Robert Chapman 123, Vijay Kumar Chattu 124, Soosanna Kumary Chattu 125, Irini Chatziralli 126 127, Neha Chaudhary 128 129, Daniel Youngwhan Cho 130, Jee-Young J Choi 131, Mohiuddin Ahsanul Kabir Chowdhury 132 133, Devasahayam J Christopher 134, Dinh-Toi Chu 135, Flavia M Cicuttini 136, João M Coelho 137, Vera M Costa 112, Saad M A Dahlawi 138, Ahmad Daryani 139, Claudio Alberto Dávila-Cervantes 140, Diego De Leo 141, Feleke Mekonnen Demeke 142, Gebre Teklemariam Demoz 143 144, Desalegn Getnet Demsie 23, Kebede Deribe 145 146, Rupak Desai 147, Mostafa Dianati Nasab 148, Diana Dias da Silva 149, Zahra Sadat Dibaji Forooshani 150, Hoa Thi Do 151, Kerrie E Doyle 152, Tim Robert Driscoll 153, Eleonora Dubljanin 154, Bereket Duko Adema 155 156, Arielle Wilder Eagan 157 158, Demelash Abewa Elemineh 159, Shaimaa I El-Jaafary 2, Ziad El-Khatib 160 161, Christian Lycke Ellingsen 162 163, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki 164, Sharareh Eskandarieh 165, Oghenowede Eyawo 166 167, Pawan Sirwan Faris 168 169, Andre Faro 170, Farshad Farzadfar 171, Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad 172 173, Eduarda Fernandes 174, Pietro Ferrara 175, Florian Fischer 176, Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan 177, Artem Alekseevich Fomenkov 178, Masoud Foroutan 179, Joel Msafiri Francis 180, Richard Charles Franklin 181 182, Takeshi Fukumoto 183 184, Biniyam Sahiledengle Geberemariyam 185, Hadush Gebremariam 87, Ketema Bizuwork Gebremedhin 186, Leake G Gebremeskel 143 187, Gebreamlak Gebremedhn Gebremeskel 188 189, Berhe Gebremichael 190, Getnet Azeze Gedefaw 191 192, Birhanu Geta 193, Agegnehu Bante Getenet 194, Mansour Ghafourifard 195, Farhad Ghamari 196, Reza Ghanei Gheshlagh 197, Asadollah Gholamian 198 199, Syed Amir Gilani 200 201, Tiffany K Gill 202, Amir Hossein Goudarzian 203, Alessandra C Goulart 204 205, Ayman Grada 206, Michal Grivna 207, Rafael Alves Guimarães 208, Yuming Guo 136 209, Gaurav Gupta 210, Juanita A Haagsma 211, Brian James Hall 212, Randah R Hamadeh 213, Samer Hamidi 214, Demelash Woldeyohannes Handiso 185, Josep Maria Haro 215 216, Amir Hasanzadeh 217 218, Shoaib Hassan 219, Soheil Hassanipour 220 221, Hadi Hassankhani 222 223, Hamid Yimam Hassen 224 225, Rasmus Havmoeller 226, Delia Hendrie 56, Fatemeh Heydarpour 227, Martha Híjar 228 229, Hung Chak Ho 230, Chi Linh Hoang 231, Michael K Hole 232, Ramesh Holla 233, Naznin Hossain 234 235, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh 236 237, Sorin Hostiuc 238 239, Guoqing Hu 240, Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye 241, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi 242, Leeberk Raja Inbaraj 243, Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani 244, M Mofizul Islam 245, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful 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Jin Kim 293, Daniel Kim 294, Sezer Kisa 295, Adnan Kisa 296, Hamidreza Komaki 297 298, Shivakumar K M Kondlahalli 299, Ali Koolivand 300, Vladimir Andreevich Korshunov 106, Ai Koyanagi 301 302, Moritz U G Kraemer 303 304, Kewal Krishan 305, Barthelemy Kuate Defo 306 307, Burcu Kucuk Bicer 308 309, Nuworza Kugbey 310 311, Nithin Kumar 312, Manasi Kumar 313 314, Vivek Kumar 315, Narinder Kumar 316, Girikumar Kumaresh 317, Faris Hasan Lami 318, Van C Lansingh 319 320, Savita Lasrado 321, Arman Latifi 322, Paolo Lauriola 323, Carlo La Vecchia 324, Janet L Leasher 325, Shaun Wen Huey Lee 326 327, Shanshan Li 136, Xuefeng Liu 328, Alan D Lopez 1 102 329, Paulo A Lotufo 330, Ronan A Lyons 331, Daiane Borges Machado 332 333, Mohammed Madadin 334, Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek 335, Narayan Bahadur Mahotra 336, Marek Majdan 337, Azeem Majeed 338, Venkatesh Maled 339 340, Deborah Carvalho Malta 341, Navid Manafi 342 343, Amir Manafi 344, Ana-Laura Manda 345, Narayana Manjunatha 346, Fariborz 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Renjith 487, Serge Resnikoff 488 489, Aziz Rezapour 30, Ana Isabel Ribeiro 490, Jennifer Rickard 491 492, Carlos Miguel Rios González 493 494, Leonardo Roever 495, Luca Ronfani 390, Gholamreza Roshandel 464 496, Basema Saddik 497, Hamid Safarpour 498, Mahdi Safdarian 499 500, S Mohammad Sajadi 501, Payman Salamati 500, Marwa R Rashad Salem 502, Hosni Salem 503, Inbal Salz 504, Abdallah M Samy 505, Juan Sanabria 506 507, Lidia Sanchez Riera 508 509, Milena M Santric Milicevic 510 511, Abdur Razzaque Sarker 512, Arash Sarveazad 513, Brijesh Sathian 514 515, Monika Sawhney 516, Mehdi Sayyah 517, David C Schwebel 518, Soraya Seedat 519, Subramanian Senthilkumaran 520, Seyedmojtaba Seyedmousavi 521, Feng Sha 522, Faramarz Shaahmadi 523, Saeed Shahabi 524, Masood Ali Shaikh 525, Mehran Shams-Beyranvand 526, Aziz Sheikh 527 528, Mika Shigematsu 529, Jae Il Shin 530 531, Rahman Shiri 532, Soraya Siabani 533 534, Inga Dora Sigfusdottir 535 536, Jasvinder A Singh 537 538, Pankaj Kumar 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Affiliations

01 October 2020

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doi: 10.1136/injuryprev-2019-043531

Abstract

Background: While there is a long history of measuring death and disability from injuries, modern research methods must account for the wide spectrum of disability that can occur in an injury, and must provide estimates with sufficient demographic, geographical and temporal detail to be useful for policy makers. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study used methods to provide highly detailed estimates of global injury burden that meet these criteria.

Methods: In this study, we report and discuss the methods used in GBD 2017 for injury morbidity and mortality burden estimation. In summary, these methods included estimating cause-specific mortality for every cause of injury, and then estimating incidence for every cause of injury. Non-fatal disability for each cause is then calculated based on the probabilities of suffering from different types of bodily injury experienced.

Results: GBD 2017 produced morbidity and mortality estimates for 38 causes of injury. Estimates were produced in terms of incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, cause-specific mortality, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life-years for a 28-year period for 22 age groups, 195 countries and both sexes.

Conclusions: GBD 2017 demonstrated a complex and sophisticated series of analytical steps using the largest known database of morbidity and mortality data on injuries. GBD 2017 results should be used to help inform injury prevention policy making and resource allocation. We also identify important avenues for improving injury burden estimation in the future.

Keywords: descriptive epidemiology; methodology; populations/contexts; statistical issues.

Conflict of interest statement

Competing interests: Dr. James reports grants from Sanofi Pasteur, outside the submitted work. Dr. Driscoll reports grants from World Health Organisation, during the conduct of the study. Dr Shariful Islam is funded by a Fellowship from National Heart Foundation of Australia and Institute for Physical Activity and Nutrition, Deakin University. Dr. Ivers reports grants from National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia, during the conduct of the study. Dr. Jozwiak reports personal fees from TEVA, personal fees from ALAB, personal fees from BOEHRINGER INGELHEIM, personal fees from SYNEXUS, non-financial support from SERVIER, non-financial support from MICROLIFE, non-financial support from MEDICOVER, outside the submitted work. Walter Mendoza is currently Program Analyst Population and Development at the Peru Country Office of the United Nations Population Fund-UNFPA, which does not necessarily endorses this study. Dr. Rakovac reports grants from World Health Organization, during the conduct of the study. Dr. Sheikh reports grants from Health Data Research UK, outside the submitted work. Dr. Singh reports personal fees from Crealta/Horizon, Medisys, Fidia, UBM LLC, Trio health, Medscape, WebMD, Clinical Care options, Clearview healthcare partners, Putnam associates, Spherix, Practice Point communications, the National Institutes of Health and the American College of Rheumatology, personal fees from Speaker’s bureau of Simply Speaking. Dr. Singh owns stock options in Amarin pharmaceuticals and Viking pharmaceuticals. Dr. Singh serves on the steering committee of OMERACT, an international organization that develops measures for clinical trials and receives arms-length funding from 12 pharmaceutical companies. Dr. Singh serves on the FDA Arthritis Advisory Committee. Dr. Singh is a member of the Veterans Affairs Rheumatology Field Advisory Committee. Dr. Singh is the editor and the Director of the UAB Cochrane Musculoskeletal Group Satellite Center on Network Meta-analysis, outside the submitted work. Dr. Stein reports personal fees from Lundbeck and Sun, outside the submitted work.

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